9/9/2025
Bureau of Labor Statistics
Has suffered from lack of funding by both Democrats and Republicans
The U.S. economy likely created 911,000 fewer jobs in the 12 months through March than previously estimated
This information suggests that the labor market was already suffering before the implementation of emergency tariffs
US unemployment rate near 4-year high
4.3%
Employment growth has softened considerably, averaging 29,000 jobs per month in the last three months, compared to 82,000 during the same period in 2024
The bulk of the jobs added in August were in healthcare, with payrolls in the sector rising by 31,000
Economy shed jobs in June for the first time in four and a half years
JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon says the economy ‘is weakening’
“Whether it’s on the way to recession or just weakening, I don’t know.”
President Donald Trump fired the Bureau of Labor Statistics commissioner Erika McEntarfer last month hours after the release of a report containing this disappointing data
September Market
September is the worst month of the year for the US equity market
Federal Reserve policymakers appear to be poised to resume cutting interest rates at their next meeting
This could benefit the market by lowering the cost of borrowing money and increasing the amount of money in circulation for the market as a whole
While the S&P 500 Index (^GSPC) has fallen 1% on average during Septembers going back to 1971, it has gained 1.2% in the month when the US central bank was reducing borrowing costs and the economy was not contracting
last year, when officials slashed interest rates by 50 basis points, the S&P 500 rose 2% in the month
With the labor market slowing, and uncertainty surrounding tariffs and their impact/legality it will be interesting to see how the market reacts
Alexander Altmann, Barclays Plc
the average September performance for the S&P 500 has indeed been the worst of any month with a decline of 0.65%. But the math has been skewed heavily by the global financial crisis of 2008 and monetary tightening in 2022 that sent stocks cratering in those months. Strip out those shocks, and the gauge was up 0.3%.
Inflation remains above the central bank’s preference of 2%, which may continue to prevent aggressive rate cuts
The Supreme Court on Tuesday (9/9) agreed to quickly decide if President Donald Trump's tariffs implemented without congressional approval under a law used for times of emergency are constitutional
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